[Geoff Davies]

Yes, I was aware that 6 clubs is on but it is extremely difficult to find.

I thought that my second round double may have put South off no trumps given their two doubletons in my suits but the majority of West players made second round doubles or bid two diamonds so I don’t think I was particularly to blame for my misfortune.

Jack, playing Benji Acol with 4 card majors, also bids 4 hearts as South (but North’s bid was 1NT 15-17).  This is not a system or rule based bid but a simulation bid, as is common in later stages of the auction, so it suggests that 4 hearts is the best bid on South’s hand with this auction.  Just my luck to play against the only player in the room that thought this.

[Geoff Davies]

Thank you for your comments.  Do you also use 5 card Stayman after a 2NT overcall over a weak 2 in a major to distinguish between a 5 card or 4 card holding in the other major?  i.e. after 3C, 3D would show 4 cards in the unbid major while bidding it directly would show 5?

[Geoff Davies]

Hi Brian, First of all, I think that Jack and Lead Captain are selecting hands quite differently.  I don’t have Lead Captain but I guess that you set the West hand and have to describe the other hands by point count and distribution.  With Jack, I can do that, or set the West hand and supply the bidding systems and the auction.  Note that Jack does not stick rigidly to point count but assesses hand quality and suitability for the bid made.  In point count terms 3NT may be  ~13-17 but Jack will bid 3NT on North hands with a long running minor and only 11 high card points.   He won’t, however, bid 3NT directly on balanced hands with a 4 card major, preferring to bid Stayman.

What I am actually reporting, however, is the result of the simulation that Jack does to select his opening lead after I have set the West hand and the bidding and then dealt and bid a hand fitting the above auction.  The documentation doesn’t explicitly describe how this simulation works but it runs more quickly than the full auction simulations so it is cutting corners in some way.

The other problem is that of optimism or aggression, whatever you want to call it.  Basically, how willing are you to go down?  You can’t set Jack to play teams or pairs.  He simply optimises the score on a particular game.  Since the score includes the game bonus then it is probably more like teams than pairs. It doesn’t seem unreasonable to me to be simulating hands that bid 3NT with a 20% chance of going down with a 6 card suit against you, I would expect it to be higher if anything..

I might say that I am probably as surprised by this analysis as you are.  I actually chose the singleton spade lead for my quiz answer!

[Geoff Davies]

As regular readers of such posts will know, I have a bridge playing program called Jack.  Jack actually chooses his leads by simulation so I put this hand into Jack and asked him what he would lead.  His analysis after dealing 1000 deals and analysing them for each possible lead gave the following results for Jack’s predicted average score for each lead:

6C -315.6
3C -347.6
5C -347.6
7C -347.6
9C -348.6
JC -359.6
7H -362.7
7D -375.0
6S -375.0
6H -423.7
8H -423.7
6D -436.0
8D -436.0

I’ve setup Jack to play Bernard’s Benji style Acol and neither side vulnerable so the opposition making 3NT would be a score of -400 in the above table.  You can see that Jack strongly favours leading a club.  Interestingly, he thinks a heart lead is slightly better than a diamond or spade lead by about 12 points on average (playing MUD).

[Geoff Davies]

The only way I would have to play below game level, apart from passing,  would be to transfer to 3 spades and then pass though on this particular deal 4 spades is actually makeable.

[Geoff Davies]

Dear Julian,

I am interested in the bidding after South’s 4H in your suggested auction above.  Presumably you do not suggest North bids 4NT since they have a void and wouldn’t know how to proceed over a 2 key card response. Can partner therefore assume you have a void somewhere when you don’t use RKCB?

Also, if you normally cue bid first or second round controls, do you switch to showing only first round controls when starting cue bidding at such a high level, hence you bid 5D rather than 5C?

Geoff Davies

[Geoff Davies]

Hi,

My computer program Jack, set to play Benji Acol with weak NT, bids to 6 clubs on these two hands as follows:

1NT – 3C (game forcing with 6+ clubs)
4C (maximum with fit) – 4D (cue bid 1st or 2nd round control)
4H (cue bid) – 4S (cue bid)
4NT (RKCB) – 5C (0 or 3)
6C

Its description of bids over 3C are:

3D/H/S 4+  suit minimum with 2 clubs
3NT maximum with 2 clubs
4C maximum with club fit
5C 13-14 total points with club fit. (total points include distribution so 12 + doubleton = 13)

Clearly, it is programmed to consider QT a club fit!

Geoff Davies

[Geoff Davies]

Hi,

Before Julian answers, it might be an idea to clarify whether you are playing Benji or not.  If I were bidding your partner’s hand playing normal Benji then I would open a game forcing 2 diamonds.  If not playing Benji, then after a 2 club bid, your 2 diamond bid would be a -ve showing less than 8 points and not a relay.

Geoff Davies

[Geoff Davies]

On the next deal the opposition missed 4S or 4H.  The auction went pass (pass) 1NT (X) 2C (pass) pass (2S) passed out.

West has a difficult bid over 2C and his choice of 2S doesn’t show the strength of the hand.  This could start another thread – what should west do over 2C?

So, two examples, one a bad outcome and one a good outcome.  I don’t have the software to automate the analyses so it is time consuming to deal and analyse sufficient results to get a statistically significant result as to whether opening 1NT is good or bad.  We will have to go on gut feeling.

[Geoff Davies]

Further to my previous post, I setup Jack to deal hands starting pass, pass and have your hand in 3rd seat.  On the second deal I got this layout!

Double dummy analysis says you should go 2 off in 1NT doubled but Jack went 3 off actually playing it after the J clubs lead.

[Geoff Davies]

Hi Brian,

I don’t think that there is an obvious right answer on this hand, which is presumably why you are posting it!   Since you are at favourable vulnerability, I would probably open 1NT for its pre-emptive value but I’m risking going 300 or even 500 off in 1 NT doubled with no game on for East – West.   As against that, I might prevent them finding a makeable game contract without even being doubled if their points are 12 -14.   It’s a gamble but my gut feeling is to bid 1NT.   My second preference would be to bid 1 diamond, expecting to be overcalled, and hope to attract a good lead to aid the defence.  I concede Stewart’s point that I would have to pass partner’s change of suit response and risk playing in a 4-3 fit.

Geoff

[Geoff Davies]

Dear Charles,

It was East that opened 2 spades.  He doesn’t have a 4 card heart suit!

Geoff

[Geoff Davies]

Dear John,

I agree that I would not open 2S on this hand but it’s not too far from a hand which I would open 2S.  Similarly, while the 1NT rebid is not ideal, is it that much worse than a 2C bid which undervalues the hand and doesn’t show the good diamond stop?

I wasn’t faced with these problems, I was the South who doubled the opening 2S and who benefitted from the 14 imps score.  If my East had passed, then faced with the same rebid problem that the other South faced, I could easily have rebid 1NT rather than 2C.

I felt that the opponents took a big hit for some relatively minor bidding transgressions.

Geoff

[Geoff Davies]

Thanks for your interest Brian.  My partner is what I would consider fairly ‘normal’ in that third in hand, non vulnerable against vulnerable they may open a little light but usually not unreasonably so.  Remember that I’m a passed hand so if I double and partner is very light they should realise and take out the double.

Geoff

[Geoff Davies]

Nik is right!  Here’s a 39 point hand with no making game contract.

The maximum number of tricks that EW can make is 9 in a minor or 8 in a major or no trumps.

[Author]

Posts